Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAABC10863
Set de 3 bols ronds – 2 L, 3 L et 5 L – Modèle 09-1254
longtail
3P
SERVICE DE TABLE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
19
▲ 171.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
74
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 29
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
AAABC10863
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 18 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Set de 3 bols ronds – 2 L, 3 L et 5 L – Modèle 09-1254 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 19 units, trending up +171.4% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (861 days of history, 114 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.18 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 19 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 8.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 0.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 2.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 17.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 519 |