Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAW61429
Fond de teint - I LOVE FLAWLESS SKIN - 30 - Fini naturel - SPF20 - 30 ml
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-33.3%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
4
≈ 3.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 50
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAAW61429
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 47 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Fond de teint - I LOVE FLAWLESS SKIN - 30 - Fini naturel - SPF20 - 30 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (686 days of history, 45 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.48 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 13.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 47.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |