Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAW61007
Baume à Lèvres - Cherry Shine - 4.8g
longtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
123
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
19
≈ 11.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 23
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-24
AAAAW61007
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 129 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Baume à Lèvres - Cherry Shine - 4.8g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 19 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (833 days of history, 68 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.32 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 60.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 128.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.0K |