Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAV59539
Souris Sans Fil - Citytek - Mf018014 - Ergonomique - Précise - Noir
longtail
1P
CLAVIER - SOURIS - WEBCAM
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 38.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+700.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
18
≈ 16.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAV59539
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 79 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Souris Sans Fil - Citytek - Mf018014 - Ergonomique - Précise - Noir · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -38.5% · on-hand 18 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (798 days of history, 71 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.91 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 29.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 78.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |