Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAV59426
Pack Ambra (2Ambra Gm+2Ambra Pm)+Gt
longtail
1P + 3P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
25
▲ 733.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
185
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
145
≈ 200.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 29
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAAAV59426
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 134 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack Ambra (2Ambra Gm+2Ambra Pm)+Gt · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 25 units, trending up +733.3% · on-hand 144 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (602 days of history, 60 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.94 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 25 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 23.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 11.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 134.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.9K |