Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAQ75649
Machine à Popcorn POP-391 1200W sans huile - DENWA
longtail
1P
FABRICATION MAISON
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 76.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+33.3%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 139
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAQ75649
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 65 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Machine à Popcorn POP-391 1200W sans huile - DENWA · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -76.5% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (826 days of history, 103 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 21.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 64.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.0K |