Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAQ13578
DENWA - BALANCE DE CUISINE ELEC 15KG KS423
longtail
1P
USTENSILES DE PESAGE - MESURE
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+1700.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
62
≈ 42.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 82
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAQ13578
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 154 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
DENWA - BALANCE DE CUISINE ELEC 15KG KS423 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 62 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (812 days of history, 139 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.85 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 22.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 52.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 15.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 58.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 153.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.6K |