Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAP78642
Collagène marin + Vitamine C, santé et bien-être
hero
3P
COMPLEMENTS ALIMENTAIRES - THE INFUSION
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▼ 63.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-89.0%
vs same 4w last year (146 units)
Current stock
4
≈ 0.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 62
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAP78642
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 347 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Collagène marin + Vitamine C, santé et bien-être · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending down -63.6% · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (798 days of history, 662 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.08 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 44 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 54.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 15.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 94.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 346.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 21.5K |