Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAP38446
BOÎTE DE RANGEMENT EN CRISTAL 800 ML
longtail
1P + 3P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▲ 200.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
187
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 1.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 15
avg of last 19 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAAAP38446
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 131 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
BOÎTE DE RANGEMENT EN CRISTAL 800 ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending up +200.0% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (861 days of history, 49 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.00 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 15.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 60.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 131.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |