Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAO53442
LOT 2 BOITES HERMETIQUES 3.4 L+1.2 L TRANSPARENTES
longtail
1P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 90.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
19
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
19
≈ 38.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-13
AAAAO53442
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 9 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
LOT 2 BOITES HERMETIQUES 3.4 L+1.2 L TRANSPARENTES · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -90.0% · on-hand 19 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (861 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 4.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 0.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 1.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 9.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 119 |