Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAN74445
PACK Sérum - Sérum Acide Hyaluronique+Sérum Vitamine C+Rétinol+collagen
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 68.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+500.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
7
≈ 6.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 104
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAN74445
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
PACK Sérum - Sérum Acide Hyaluronique+Sérum Vitamine C+Rétinol+collagen · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -68.4% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (840 days of history, 88 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.98 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 75.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.8K |