Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAN72289
Curaskin - Sebocure Gel Nettoyant Seboregulateur - Peau Grasse - 200ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-55.6%
vs same 4w last year (9 units)
Current stock
118
≈ 44.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 114
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAN72289
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 112 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Curaskin - Sebocure Gel Nettoyant Seboregulateur - Peau Grasse - 200ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 118 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (826 days of history, 117 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 25.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 111.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.7K |