Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAN67800
BOL Fleur 11,5 cm
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
30
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
904
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
71
≈ 82.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 5
avg of last 16 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAAN67800
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 55 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
BOL Fleur 11,5 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 30 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 71 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (889 days of history, 54 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 30 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 20.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 1.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 7.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 55.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 292 |