Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAN18681
2 manches bras homme femme refroidissement Protection Solaire Sport Plein Air
longtail
3P
PROTECTION DU SPORTIF
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▲ 22.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+266.7%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
24
≈ 38.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAN18681
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 65 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
2 manches bras homme femme refroidissement Protection Solaire Sport Plein Air · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending up +22.2% · on-hand 24 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (826 days of history, 53 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 19.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 64.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.1K |