Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAN18176
Vichy Capital soleil crème anti-brillant Teinte + après soleil 100ml pack
longtail
1P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 54.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
396
Σ Stock across 15 live offers
1P stock
5
≈ 8.7 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 152
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAN18176
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 55 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Vichy Capital soleil crème anti-brillant Teinte + après soleil 100ml pack · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -54.5% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (861 days of history, 30 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 55.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.4K |