Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAL58167
Unlimited Double Touch 103 Natural Rose
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P)
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 117
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAL58167
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 133 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Unlimited Double Touch 103 Natural Rose · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (896 days of history, 372 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.19 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 58.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 133.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 15.6K |