Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAL51419
X- Pack BOITE A PAIN + EGOUTTOIRE JAPONAIS 2 PIÈCES
longtail
1P
CONSERVATION DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
37
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
37
≈ 32.5 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 45
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAL51419
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 10 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
X- Pack BOITE A PAIN + EGOUTTOIRE JAPONAIS 2 PIÈCES · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 37 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (833 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 1.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 3.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 9.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 439 |