Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAK21515
Déodorant - Vichy - Anti-Transpirant 48H - Spécial Rasage - 50ml - Peaux Sensibles
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 100
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-31
AAAAK21515
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 105 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant - Vichy - Anti-Transpirant 48H - Spécial Rasage - 50ml - Peaux Sensibles · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (924 days of history, 51 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 32.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 16.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 104.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.5K |