Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAI31629
Ultra Doux Hair Food Masque Réparateur Papaye 390ml
hero
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
24
▲ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
280
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
36
≈ 2.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 66
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAI31629
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 302 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ultra Doux Hair Food Masque Réparateur Papaye 390ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 24 units, trending up +14.3% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (917 days of history, 321 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.12 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 24 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 9.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 35.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 146.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 15.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 65.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 301.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 19.9K |