Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAI31629
Ultra Doux Hair Food Masque Réparateur Papaye 390ml
hero
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 52.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
287
Σ Stock across 7 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
36
≈ 2.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 63
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAAI31629
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 167 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ultra Doux Hair Food Masque Réparateur Papaye 390ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -52.4% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (980 days of history, 234 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.15 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 42.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 17.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 55.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 167.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.6K |