Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAI31629
Ultra Doux Hair Food Masque Réparateur Papaye 390ml
hero
1P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 30.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-90.5%
vs same 4w last year (74 units)
Current stock
27
≈ 2.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 69
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAI31629
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 213 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ultra Doux Hair Food Masque Réparateur Papaye 390ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -30.0% · on-hand 27 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (861 days of history, 441 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.11 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 47.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 58.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 212.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.6K |