Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH69638
Herbal Essences Masque Capillaire Sans Sulfates à l'Aloe Vera et à l'Avocat - 250ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 70.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
84
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
2
≈ 2.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAH69638
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 79 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Herbal Essences Masque Capillaire Sans Sulfates à l'Aloe Vera et à l'Avocat - 250ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -70.0% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (924 days of history, 97 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 20 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 42.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 79.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.0K |