Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH69638
Herbal Essences Masque Capillaire Sans Sulfates à l'Aloe Vera et à l'Avocat - 250ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 43.8% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
109
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
13
≈ 14.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 42
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-25
AAAAH69638
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 73 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Herbal Essences Masque Capillaire Sans Sulfates à l'Aloe Vera et à l'Avocat - 250ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -43.8% · on-hand 13 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (980 days of history, 115 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 18.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 37.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 73.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.1K |