Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH65114
Pack 100 Pieces Papier Cuisson Pour Air Fryer Prédécoupé en Forme Rond
longtail
3P
CUISSON DES ALIMENTS
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
34
≈ 14.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAAH65114
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack 100 Pieces Papier Cuisson Pour Air Fryer Prédécoupé en Forme Rond · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -14.3% · on-hand 34 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (889 days of history, 213 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.70 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 32.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 117.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.6K |