Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH59530
Baume à Lèvres - LABELLO - Blackberry Shine - 4.8g - Hydratation longue durée - Parfum de Mûre
midtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-42.9%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
39
≈ 9.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAH59530
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 113 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Baume à Lèvres - LABELLO - Blackberry Shine - 4.8g - Hydratation longue durée - Parfum de Mûre · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 39 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (861 days of history, 243 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.02 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 27.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 113.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.9K |