Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH59530
Baume à Lèvres - LABELLO - Blackberry Shine - 4.8g - Hydratation longue durée - Parfum de Mûre
midtail
1P + 3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
21
▼ 8.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
221
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
2
≈ 0.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAH59530
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 153 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Baume à Lèvres - LABELLO - Blackberry Shine - 4.8g - Hydratation longue durée - Parfum de Mûre · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 21 units, trending down -8.7% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (910 days of history, 247 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.98 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 21 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 23.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 77.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 152.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.8K |