Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH49548
Toner acid Glycolic 7%, 250 ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
38
▼ 32.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-45.7%
vs same 4w last year (70 units)
Current stock
41
≈ 6.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 67
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAH49548
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 348 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Toner acid Glycolic 7%, 250 ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 38 units, trending down -32.1% · on-hand 41 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (868 days of history, 493 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 38 units · prev 4w = 56 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 12.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 50.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 135.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 23.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 111.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 348.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 10.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 23.3K |