Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH43778
Déodorant DEEP Beat -Pour Homme - Roll-on 50ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
6
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
6
≈ 5.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-25
AAAAH43778
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 65 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant DEEP Beat -Pour Homme - Roll-on 50ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (945 days of history, 15 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 64.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |