Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH40106
Crème Solaire - Beauty of Joseon - Relief Sun - SPF50+ PA++++ - 50 ml - Hydratante et légère
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 77.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-96.9%
vs same 4w last year (160 units)
Current stock
28
≈ 1.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 210
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAH40106
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 266 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème Solaire - Beauty of Joseon - Relief Sun - SPF50+ PA++++ - 50 ml - Hydratante et légère · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -77.3% · on-hand 28 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (840 days of history, 976 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.06 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 22 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 21.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 74.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 16.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 92.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 265.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 55.8K |