Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH37950
Balance Connectée - CITYTEK - MF109331 - Verre Élégant - 160 kg - Suivi Smartphone
longtail
1P + 3P
SANTE - HYGIENE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 53.8% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
34
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
19
≈ 6.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 152
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAAH37950
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 119 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Balance Connectée - CITYTEK - MF109331 - Verre Élégant - 160 kg - Suivi Smartphone · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -53.8% · on-hand 19 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (938 days of history, 111 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.90 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 38.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 12.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 37.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 119.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 18.1K |