Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH36601
VASELINE OFFICINALE, 1 tube 45 g
midtail
3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
19
▼ 20.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+11.8%
vs same 4w last year (17 units)
Current stock
417
≈ 125.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 10
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAH36601
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 150 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
VASELINE OFFICINALE, 1 tube 45 g · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 19 units, trending down -20.8% · on-hand 417 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (896 days of history, 331 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.25 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 19 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 18.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 48.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 54.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 150.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |