Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH36601
VASELINE OFFICINALE, 1 tube 45 g
midtail
3P
HYGIENE BEBE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2,628
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAH36601
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 159 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
VASELINE OFFICINALE, 1 tube 45 g · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 2742 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (952 days of history, 330 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.25 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 67.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 159.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.8K |