Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH29197
Sérum Hydratant - The Purest Solutions - Acide Hyaluronique 2% + B5 - 30ml - Anti-âge - Tous types de peau
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+400.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
125
≈ 177.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 127
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAAH29197
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 64 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum Hydratant - The Purest Solutions - Acide Hyaluronique 2% + B5 - 30ml - Anti-âge - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -16.7% · on-hand 125 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (868 days of history, 67 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 22.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 63.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.1K |