Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH29197
Sérum Hydratant - The Purest Solutions - Acide Hyaluronique 2% + B5 - 30ml - Anti-âge - Tous types de peau
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▲ 211.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
40
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 81
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-29
AAAAH29197
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 83 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum Hydratant - The Purest Solutions - Acide Hyaluronique 2% + B5 - 30ml - Anti-âge - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending up +211.1% · on-hand 40 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (910 days of history, 102 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.97 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 43.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 83.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.7K |