Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH29192
Sérum Anti-Âge - THE PUREST SOLUTIONS - Rajeunissant Rétinol 1% - 30ml - Sans Parabène - Pour Tous Types de Peau
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
21
▲ 133.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
308
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 82
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAAAH29192
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 80 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum Anti-Âge - THE PUREST SOLUTIONS - Rajeunissant Rétinol 1% - 30ml - Sans Parabène - Pour Tous Types de Peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 21 units, trending up +133.3% · on-hand 308 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (945 days of history, 48 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.01 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 21 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 42.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 80.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.6K |