Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH28477
Gel Nettoyant - Phytamine - 250ml - Non comédogène - Peaux grasses - Purifiant
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
30
≈ stable (-3.2% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
282
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-25
AAAAH28477
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 236 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Nettoyant - Phytamine - 250ml - Non comédogène - Peaux grasses - Purifiant · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 30 units, stable demand · on-hand 308 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (917 days of history, 458 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.30 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 30 units · prev 4w = 31 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 72.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 32.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 16.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 71.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 235.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.4K |