Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH28477
Gel Nettoyant - Phytamine - 250ml - Non comédogène - Peaux grasses - Purifiant
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
59
▲ 78.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+742.9%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
432
≈ 174.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAH28477
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 91 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Nettoyant - Phytamine - 250ml - Non comédogène - Peaux grasses - Purifiant · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 59 units, trending up +78.8% · on-hand 432 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (805 days of history, 237 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.21 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 59 units · prev 4w = 33 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 33.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 41.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 90.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |