Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH27828
pince à cuticules, coupe peau morte, coupe ongle, outil de manucure & pédicure en Acier inoxydable
longtail
3P
ONGLERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 58.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-79.2%
vs same 4w last year (24 units)
Current stock
985
≈ 448.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAAH27828
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 72 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
pince à cuticules, coupe peau morte, coupe ongle, outil de manucure & pédicure en Acier inoxydable · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -58.3% · on-hand 985 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (875 days of history, 136 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.04 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 27.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 845 |