Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH12281
Déodorant Stick - FOREVER LIVING - Aloès - 92.1 g - Sans alcool - Sans sels d'aluminium
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 72.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+50.0%
vs same 4w last year (10 units)
Current stock
38
≈ 12.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 67
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAH12281
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 161 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant Stick - FOREVER LIVING - Aloès - 92.1 g - Sans alcool - Sans sels d'aluminium · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -72.7% · on-hand 38 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (924 days of history, 272 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.05 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 55 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 17.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 45.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 13.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 62.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 161.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.7K |