Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH12273
FOREVER BRIGHT™
longtail
3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 11.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+233.3%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
34
≈ 35.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 77
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAH12273
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 68 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
FOREVER BRIGHT™ · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +11.1% · on-hand 34 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (924 days of history, 75 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 19.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 68.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.3K |