Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH06746
Gel Nettoyant - REVOX - ZITCARE - 250ml - AHA BHA PHA - Vegan pour peaux grasses
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 11.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-33.3%
vs same 4w last year (12 units)
Current stock
51
≈ 26.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 75
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAAH06746
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 114 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel Nettoyant - REVOX - ZITCARE - 250ml - AHA BHA PHA - Vegan pour peaux grasses · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -11.1% · on-hand 51 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (938 days of history, 158 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.63 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 113.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.5K |