Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH06626
Revox - Sérum Alpha Arbutin 2% + HA Brightning - 30ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 40.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-45.5%
vs same 4w last year (22 units)
Current stock
36
≈ 9.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 74
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAH06626
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 128 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Revox - Sérum Alpha Arbutin 2% + HA Brightning - 30ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -40.0% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (938 days of history, 192 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 20 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 17.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 46.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 127.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.5K |