Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAH03930
TEFAL - Fer à repasser Steam Essential FV1955 Semelle en céramique - 1400 W - Violet
longtail
3P
REPASSAGE - COUTURE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 53.8% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
8
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 222
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-27
AAAAH03930
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 72 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TEFAL - Fer à repasser Steam Essential FV1955 Semelle en céramique - 1400 W - Violet · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -53.8% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (987 days of history, 79 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 11.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 39.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 19.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 72.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.1K |