Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG96502
Stevia Erythritol En Poudre 100% Naturel. ./ Regime 100g
longtail
3P
FARINE ET SUCRE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 82.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-66.7%
vs same 4w last year (18 units)
Current stock
15
≈ 6.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 25
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAG96502
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 147 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Stevia Erythritol En Poudre 100% Naturel. ./ Regime 100g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -82.4% · on-hand 15 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (924 days of history, 190 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.79 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 34 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 20.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 53.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 53.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 147.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.6K |