Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG92836
Gua Sha - Gua Sha en forme cœur en jade vert sculpte et tonifie
longtail
3P
SOIN
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 73.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-58.3%
vs same 4w last year (12 units)
Current stock
97
≈ 49.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAG92836
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 87 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gua Sha - Gua Sha en forme cœur en jade vert sculpte et tonifie · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -73.7% · on-hand 97 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (952 days of history, 145 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 13.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 32.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 87.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 916 |