Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG89232
Tondeuse Xiaomi UniBlade
longtail
3P
COIFFURE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▼ 13.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
19
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
10
≈ 10.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 259
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAG89232
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 76 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tondeuse Xiaomi UniBlade · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending down -13.3% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1001 days of history, 38 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.00 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 12.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 40.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 76.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 19.7K |