Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG78211
OREILLER ANTISTRESS 50X70 - 850G
longtail
1P + 3P
LINGE DE LIT
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▼ 42.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
35
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
25
≈ 50.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 107
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-06
AAAAG78211
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 88 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
OREILLER ANTISTRESS 50X70 - 850G · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending down -42.1% · on-hand 25 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1085 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.97 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 19 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 18.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 27.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 88.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.4K |