Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG78137
Cahier universitaire - BLEU MARINE - 8 sujets - A4 - 384 pages - 70g
longtail
3P
PAPIER - CAHIER - CARNET
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
49
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-06-30
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-06-30 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 62
avg of last 15 sells · latest 2026-04-26
AAAAG78137
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 38 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cahier universitaire - BLEU MARINE - 8 sujets - A4 - 384 pages - 70g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 50 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (875 days of history, 17 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 8.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 1.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 37.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.3K |