Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG78127
Cahier - Multicolore - 17x22cm - 96 Pages - Grands Carreaux - 60g
longtail
3P
PAPIER - CAHIER - CARNET
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 67.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1,750
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 4
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-09
AAAAG78127
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 269 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cahier - Multicolore - 17x22cm - 96 Pages - Grands Carreaux - 60g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -67.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (987 days of history, 155 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.65 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 31 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 92.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 268.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.1K |