Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG78058
PanOxyl, Nettoyant crémeux contre l'acné, Contrôle quotidien, Peroxyde de benzoyle à 4 %
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
3
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 203
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAAAG78058
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
PanOxyl, Nettoyant crémeux contre l'acné, Contrôle quotidien, Peroxyde de benzoyle à 4 % · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1022 days of history, 56 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 24.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.8K |