Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG71165
Sérum - GARNIER - Fast Bright - 30X Vitamine C - 15 ML - Éclat intense et hydratation
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
30
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
66
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 0.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 52
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAAG71165
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 157 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum - GARNIER - Fast Bright - 30X Vitamine C - 15 ML - Éclat intense et hydratation · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 30 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1029 days of history, 261 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.60 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 30 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 7.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 26.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 84.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 156.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.1K |