Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG71165
Sérum - GARNIER - Fast Bright - 30X Vitamine C - 15 ML - Éclat intense et hydratation
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▼ 30.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-33.3%
vs same 4w last year (27 units)
Current stock
20
≈ 7.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 58
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAG71165
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 164 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sérum - GARNIER - Fast Bright - 30X Vitamine C - 15 ML - Éclat intense et hydratation · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending down -30.8% · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (973 days of history, 251 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.59 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 26 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 7.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 27.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 65.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 14.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 58.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 164.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.5K |