Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG70922
Gel exfoliant quotidien 3 en 1 - Garnier - SkinActive - Anti Acné - 150ml - Sans alcool
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
18
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 57
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-20
AAAAG70922
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 126 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel exfoliant quotidien 3 en 1 - Garnier - SkinActive - Anti Acné - 150ml - Sans alcool · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1064 days of history, 50 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.79 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 50.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 126.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.2K |