Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG70919
Garnier SkinActive Fast Clear - Sérum Anti-Acné 15ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-47.4%
vs same 4w last year (19 units)
Current stock
7
≈ 2.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 65
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAAG70919
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 113 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Garnier SkinActive Fast Clear - Sérum Anti-Acné 15ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +42.9% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (966 days of history, 140 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 112.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.3K |