Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAG59990
Savon Noir Marocain BIO Parfumé à l’Oud – Sabone Beldi 1 kg
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 78.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+0.0%
vs same 4w last year (3 units)
Current stock
995
≈ 176.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAAG59990
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 262 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon Noir Marocain BIO Parfumé à l’Oud – Sabone Beldi 1 kg · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -78.6% · on-hand 995 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (903 days of history, 712 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.82 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 13.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 47.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 60.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 261.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.5K |