Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAG59990
Savon Noir Marocain BIO Parfumé à l’Oud – Sabone Beldi 1 kg
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
39
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-05
AAAAG59990
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 315 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon Noir Marocain BIO Parfumé à l’Oud – Sabone Beldi 1 kg · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 39 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (931 days of history, 723 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.85 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 26.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 126.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 55.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 315.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.0K |