Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAF52182
HERÔME – Vernis Durcisseur 4-en-1 à Séchage Rapide = Soin Fortifiant pour Ongles Fragiles
midtail
1P + 3P
ONGLERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
16
▼ 36.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2,753
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
39
≈ 10.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 186
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
AAAAF52182
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 159 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
HERÔME – Vernis Durcisseur 4-en-1 à Séchage Rapide = Soin Fortifiant pour Ongles Fragiles · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 16 units, trending down -36.0% · on-hand 39 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1064 days of history, 291 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.16 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 16 units · prev 4w = 25 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 22.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 82.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 159.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 29.6K |