Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAAF21102
HUILE D'ARGAN BIO pour Visage, Corps, Cheveux, Ongles - Nourrit et répare 100ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 91.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-83.3%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
188
≈ 69.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 49
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAAF21102
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
HUILE D'ARGAN BIO pour Visage, Corps, Cheveux, Ongles - Nourrit et répare 100ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -91.7% · on-hand 188 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (546 days of history, 197 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.30 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 34.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 117.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.8K |