Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAAF21077
Savon noir - BIOPROGREEN - Eucalyptus - 1kg - Sans alcool - Pour femme
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 89.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+300.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
158
≈ 75.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAAF21077
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 156 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Savon noir - BIOPROGREEN - Eucalyptus - 1kg - Sans alcool - Pour femme · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -89.5% · on-hand 158 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1008 days of history, 285 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.33 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 38 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 18.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 47.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 12.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 54.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 156.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.6K |